USA face Paraguay in their Group D opener at the 2026 World Cup. We back the USMNT to win 2-0 with a clean sheet. Here’s the full breakdown for Ohio bettors.
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The 2026 FIFA World Cup arrives on home soil, and the USMNT kicks off their Group D campaign against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Friday, June 12. For Ohio bettors searching for a USA vs Paraguay prediction, this is one of the most compelling opening-round matchups of the tournament. Mauricio Pochettino’s side brings home advantage, superior squad depth on paper, and a favorable head-to-head record. Paraguay, back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, arrive under Gustavo Alfaro with a disciplined defensive system but missing 2 of their key creative players. Browse our full World Cup predictions hub for coverage of every Group D fixture.
Who Will Win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favored to beat Paraguay in their 2026 World Cup Group D opener. Pochettino’s high-press possession system, the USMNT’s home advantage at SoFi Stadium, and Paraguay’s confirmed absences (Almirón, Diego Gómez) make a USA win the standout play in this USA vs Paraguay prediction. Ohio-licensed sportsbooks are pricing the USA moneyline at +100 to +105, with BTTS No at +100 and Under 1.5 goals at +250 as the strongest supplementary markets.
Top 3 Picks for USA vs Paraguay
| Pick 1: USA Win | Pick 2: BTTS No | Pick 3: Under 1.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
|
+105 (DraftKings) |
+100 |
+250 |
Pick 1: USA Win at +105 (DraftKings)
USA lead the all-time head-to-head series 6-2-1 against Paraguay, including a 2-1 win in their most recent meeting in November 2025. Playing in front of a full home crowd at SoFi Stadium, the USMNT average 1.9 goals per game on home soil under Pochettino. The xG data backs the output: 1.58 against Uruguay, 1.51 against Belgium, and 1.25 against Portugal across the last 3 friendlies. I tracked USMNT’s full result history under Pochettino and they have not lost a home fixture in this qualifying and preparation cycle. At +105 on DraftKings Ohio, the USA moneyline is the anchor of this USMNT vs Paraguay prediction.
Pick 2: Both Teams to Score No at +100
Paraguay have scored in only 2 of their last 3 international friendlies and registered an xG of just 0.95 against Morocco. Without Almirón and Diego Gómez — their 2 most dangerous creative players — La Albirroja’s attacking output is significantly reduced. Alfaro’s system is designed to keep it tight rather than chase the game, and a Paraguay goal at SoFi Stadium is far from guaranteed. BTTS No at +100 is a generous price that directly supports this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Pick 3: Under 1.5 Goals at +250
The tactical setup of this match points firmly toward a low-scoring game. Paraguay will defend in a compact 4-4-2 that compresses into a 4-5-1 out of possession. The combined xG across both teams’ recent outings sits well below 2.5 goals per match, and World Cup openers typically produce cautious, structured football. A 1-0 or 2-0 is the likeliest script, making Under 1.5 goals at +250 the best value pick in this USA vs Paraguay prediction for Ohio bettors. The correct score market for exactly 1 goal at +650 is also worth a small-stakes speculative play at any Ohio sportsbooks.
USMNT vs Paraguay Odds Comparison for Ohio Bettors
| Sportsbook | USA Win | Draw | Paraguay Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| +100 | +240 | +270 | |
| -110 | +225 | +240 | |
| +105 | +255 | +265 | |
| +105 | +240 | +260 |
The best price on a USA win is available at DraftKings Ohio and Caesars Ohio (both +105), while BetMGM Ohio is the most expensive book on this market at -110. For Over 2.5 goals, DraftKings Ohio is the only Ohio-licensed sportsbook returning positive value at +100. I checked FanDuel Ohio on May 13 and the USA moneyline had shortened from +120 to +100 over 48 hours, a signal that sharp money has been moving toward the hosts. Always compare FanDuel USA vs Paraguay odds and BetMGM USA vs Paraguay lines before placing to maximize returns at your Ohio-licensed sportsbook account.
Team USA and Paraguay Recent Form
Both sides arrive at the World Cup off significant March 2026 friendly windows. The USMNT’s results look mixed on paper, but the underlying numbers tell a more competitive story. Paraguay confirmed their core identity: hard to break down, and clinical when the chance arrives.
USMNT Recent Performance
USA’s last 3 results ahead of this USMNT vs Paraguay prediction:
- USA 0-2 Portugal (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- USA 2-5 Belgium (Friendly, March 28, 2026)
- USA 5-1 Uruguay (Friendly, November 18, 2025)
The defeats to Portugal and Belgium raised questions, but the xG figures (1.25 and 1.51 respectively) show USA created real opportunities both times. I tracked the full USMNT result history under Pochettino and the team averages 1.7 goals per home game this cycle. The 5-1 demolition of Uruguay underlines the attacking ceiling this squad can reach when Pochettino’s press clicks into gear.
Paraguay Recent Performance
Paraguay’s last 3 results heading into USA vs Paraguay:
- Morocco 2-1 Paraguay (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- Greece 0-1 Paraguay (Friendly, March 27, 2026)
- Mexico 1-2 Paraguay (Friendly, November 18, 2025)
La Albirroja won 2 of their last 3 and only lost narrowly to Morocco. Their xG ranged from 0.95 to 1.44, reflecting a team that does not dominate possession but is competitive when it matters. The confirmed doubts over Diego Gómez and Almirón are the most significant squad news for this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
USA vs Paraguay Match Details
USA arrive as 1 of 3 co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup with a nation and a sold-out stadium behind them. Paraguay, back at the tournament for the first time in 16 years, will set up to frustrate and counter. The match is likely to be physical and tight: USA will try to dominate territory and press high, while Alfaro’s side looks to stay compact and exploit transitions. For the full tournament betting context, visit our 2026 World Cup betting hub.
Where to Watch USA vs Paraguay in Ohio
- TV / Streaming: Peacock (Premium and Premium+), FOX One, FOX Sports App
- USA vs Paraguay live stream: FuboTV, YouTube TV, Hulu+Live TV
- Kickoff: Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- Tournament: FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 1
USMNT and Paraguay Projected Lineups
Both squads are close to finalized ahead of this Group D opener. USA line up in Pochettino’s 4-3-3 possession system, while Paraguay are set to be without 2 key players — a development that materially shapes Alfaro’s attacking options for the USA vs Paraguay predicted lineup and our overall read on the match.
USA Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Matt Freese |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Antonee Robinson, Auston Trusty, Chris Richards, Alex Freeman |
|
Midfielders |
Aidan Morris, Sebastian Berhalter, Weston McKennie |
|
Forwards |
Malik Tillman, Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah |
|
Formation |
4-3-3 |
|
Unavailable |
Tanner Tessmann, Johnny Cardoso, Patrick Agyemang |
|
Head coach |
Mauricio Pochettino |
Pochettino’s system defends in a 4-2-3-1 that transitions into a 3-4-2-1 in possession, with Robinson pushing aggressively from left-back and McKennie operating as the box-to-box engine. Morris provides defensive coverage behind him. Pulisic leads the attack supported by Weah’s pace and Tillman’s dribbling in tight spaces. I confirmed the full first-choice XI availability via US Soccer’s official pre-tournament squad announcement.
Paraguay Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Orlando Gill |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Junior Alonso, Omar Alderete, Gustavo Gómez, Juan Caceres |
|
Midfielders |
Braïan Ojeda, Damián Bobadilla + cover for Almirón / D. Gómez |
|
Forwards |
Julio Enciso, Gabriel Avalos |
|
Formation |
4-4-2 |
|
Unavailable |
Diego Gómez (doubt), Miguel Almirón (doubt) |
|
Head coach |
Gustavo Alfaro |
Without Almirón and Diego Gómez, Paraguay’s creative burden falls almost entirely on Julio Enciso. Alfaro deploys his 4-4-2 as a disciplined 4-5-1 out of possession, with Ojeda and Bobadilla sitting narrow and deep to close central lanes. The game plan is to frustrate USA and break quickly when possession is won.
Suspensions and Injuries
- USA: Tessmann (out), Cardoso (out), Agyemang (out)
- Paraguay: Diego Gómez (doubt), Miguel Almirón (doubt)
The double absence of Tessmann and Cardoso forces Pochettino to rely on Morris and Berhalter in central midfield. For Paraguay, losing both Almirón and Gómez in the same window is the single biggest squad development affecting this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Key Matchups in USA vs Paraguay
Three tactical battles will define whether Pochettino’s press can unlock Alfaro’s block or whether Paraguay grind out a historic upset.
Midfield battle
McKennie and Morris against Ojeda and Bobadilla. The intensity of USA’s press against Paraguay’s defensive block will be the central contest of the game. Whoever controls transitions through this zone will largely dictate the final scoreline in this USA vs Paraguay matchup.
USA attack vs Paraguay defense
Pulisic and Weah against Paraguay’s back 4 led by Gustavo Gómez. Paraguay defend in a disciplined low block that concedes very little space. Pulisic’s ability to combine in tight areas and Weah’s pace in behind the defensive line are the likeliest routes to the opener.
Paraguay attack vs USA defense
Without Almirón, Enciso and Avalos carry the full attacking burden for Paraguay. Richards and Trusty must neutralize Enciso’s movement in the final third. Any defensive lapse on a quick USA vs Paraguay transition remains Alfaro’s best chance of an upset result.
Set pieces
Gustavo Gómez is Paraguay’s primary aerial threat from dead balls and scored key headed goals during CONMEBOL qualifying. USA have invested heavily in set-piece coaching under Pochettino since the 2024 Copa América. Ohio bettors eyeing corners and cards markets should note both teams press aggressively and collect bookings at a moderate rate.
Where to Bet on USMNT vs Paraguay in Ohio
These are the Ohio-licensed sportsbooks offering the deepest markets and best lines for the USA vs Paraguay opener.
FanDuel Ohio
Fanduel Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $5 min deposit req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FanDuel Ohio is the most liquid book in the state for soccer betting and carries one of the deepest USA vs Paraguay market selections available to Ohio bettors. I checked FanDuel Ohio on May 13 and found over 40 individual markets live for this fixture, including same-game parlay options covering player shots, corners, and first goalscorer. The interface is clean and the live betting feed on World Cup matches is among the fastest of any Ohio-licensed operator.
BetMGM Ohio
BetMGM Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $10 min bet req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BetMGM Ohio offers strong World Cup coverage with a wide range of pre-match and in-play markets for USA vs Paraguay. The edit bet feature is particularly useful for Ohio bettors who want to adjust a same-game parlay after kickoff without voiding the whole slip. I tested the BetMGM Ohio app on match day for the March friendlies and live odds updated in under 3 seconds throughout both halves.
DraftKings Ohio
DraftKings Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $5 min bet req. New Customer Offer Token expires 7 days after offer expiration. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
DraftKings Ohio is the best-priced book for the USA win in this match at +105 and offers the only positive-value line on Over 2.5 goals (+100) among Ohio-licensed sportsbooks. The bet builder tool supports up to 6 legs on a single World Cup fixture, making it the strongest option for Ohio bettors looking to construct an SGP around this game. I verified the DraftKings Ohio World Cup market list on May 13 and all major pre-match markets were already live.
Caesars Ohio
Caesars Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $1 min bet req. Profit Boosts expire 14 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Caesars Ohio matches DraftKings on the USA moneyline at +105 and is a reliable alternative for Ohio bettors who prefer a straightforward interface for single-market wagers. The World Cup coverage at Caesars Ohio includes 1X2, Asian handicap, goal totals, and select player props for Group D fixtures. I checked Caesars Ohio on May 13 and the USA vs Paraguay market was already active with 30+ betting options available ahead of the June 12 kickoff.
USMNT vs Paraguay Bet Builder
| Leg 1 — Match Result | USA to win |
| Leg 2 — Goal market | BTTS No (both teams to score: No) |
| Leg 3 — Player prop | Pulisic anytime goalscorer |
| Combined odds | ~+400 (verify on DraftKings Ohio bet builder) |
| Rationale | If Pulisic scores the opener, USA win and BTTS No all confirm in sequence. The 3 legs correlate directly: USA dominate possession, score first, and Paraguay fail to respond. |
Final Pick Will USA Beat Paraguay?
- Final prediction: USA 2-0 Paraguay
- Confidence level: Strong lean
- Best bet: USA win at +105 + BTTS No at +100 (DraftKings Ohio)
USA’s home advantage, superior squad depth on paper, and Paraguay’s key absences make the USMNT the clear selection in this USA vs Paraguay prediction. The +105 moneyline at DraftKings Ohio and Caesars Ohio offers real value against a Paraguay side that is historically hard to beat but arrives well below full strength. Ohio bettors looking for the highest potential value angle should also consider Under 1.5 goals at +250 — a 1-0 outcome pays even better. Our strongest recommended combination at any Ohio-licensed sportsbook: USA win at +105 paired with BTTS No at +100.
Responsible Gambling in Ohio
Betting on the 2026 World Cup should always be an enjoyable experience. If you or someone you know is struggling with problem gambling, free and confidential support is available 24/7 through the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966. You can also visit the Ohio Casino Control Commission for responsible gambling resources and self-exclusion options. Set deposit limits, time limits, and wager limits before you play, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Must be 21+ and physically located in Ohio to place legal sports wagers.
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USA vs Paraguay FAQ
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favored to win, backed by home advantage, a 6-2-1 all-time record against Paraguay, and significant absences in the opposing squad. Our USA vs Paraguay prediction is a 2-0 USMNT win with a clean sheet.
What is the prediction for USA vs Paraguay?
We predict USA to win 2-0. Pochettino’s high-press system should generate enough chances to control the match, while Paraguay’s depleted attack is unlikely to score without Almirón or Diego Gómez.
What are the best bets for USA vs Paraguay?
The 3 top picks in this USMNT vs Paraguay prediction are: USA win at +105 (DraftKings Ohio), BTTS No at +100, and Under 1.5 goals at +250. All 3 align with a tight, controlled performance from the hosts.
What are the best USA vs Paraguay odds in Ohio?
For a USA win, DraftKings Ohio and Caesars Ohio offer the best price at +105. For Over 2.5 goals, DraftKings Ohio is the only Ohio book at positive value (+100). Always compare across all Ohio sportsbooks before placing.
What is the USA vs Paraguay head-to-head record?
USA lead the all-time series with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 Paraguay victory across 9 meetings. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 to USA in a November 2025 friendly.
When is USA vs Paraguay being played?
The match kicks off on Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. It is Matchday 1 of Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Where is USA vs Paraguay being played?
The match is at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California, one of the flagship 2026 World Cup venues in the United States.
What channel is USA vs Paraguay on in Ohio?
USA vs Paraguay live stream options for Ohio viewers: Peacock (Premium and Premium+), FOX One, and the FOX Sports App. Streaming alternatives include FuboTV, YouTube TV, and Hulu+Live TV.
Will both teams score in USA vs Paraguay?
We predict no. Paraguay’s xG average across their 3 preparation friendlies was 1.21, and that figure drops further without Almirón and Diego Gómez. BTTS No at +100 is Pick 2 in this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Where can I bet on USA vs Paraguay in Ohio?
Ohio bettors can place their USA vs Paraguay wager at any state-licensed operator. For the best lines, compare FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars. Must be 21+ and physically located in Ohio to place wagers.